Market Snapshot

Friday's bond market has opened down slightly despite another round of stock selling. The stock markets are showing losses again, but they are well above earlier lows. The Dow is currently down 46 points after losing as much as 92 points earlier this morning. The Nasdaq's rebound has been much less noticeable with it currently down 17 points and only 9 points off its earlier low. The bond market is currently down 9 basis points, but due to yesterday's gain of 25 basis points, rates came out this morning .125% lower (to discount points) than Thursday's close on 30 and 15 year fixed. 5/1 adjustable rates were substantially better.

Lock or Float

As I've said numerous times on the past several weeks as bonds have been pressured higher, mostly by the inevitability of inflation and the Fed's curtailing of its mortgage backed securities purchase program, the trend for mortgage interest rates is HIGHER. With that said there are the normal ebbs and flows of stocks and bonds and currently the Fannie Mae (FNMA) bond is enjoying a run higher. Remember, higher bond prices equate to lower rates. But take a look at the bond chart. You'll see that bond prices have stepped higher, but have run into a dual level of resistance at the 100 and 50 day moving averages. That's of particular interest because stocks have slumped for three consecutive days on the news of the Obama Big Bank tax proposal. In general stocks and bonds compete for investment capital so when stocks go down investors move the money from the sale of stocks to bonds, in safekeeping if you will. 

So my advice is to lock because of the overarching trend in bond prices, but very cautiously float in the immediate term (today) to see if the bond can break through the 50 & 100 day moving averages. If they do we will likely change our bias to floating.

Market News:

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. We saw bond prices rise during afternoon trading yesterday as the major stock indexes continued to move lower throughout the day. The stock selling created a shift in funds from stocks to bonds as investors sought safety from the volatility. This led some lenders to revise pricing lower during afternoon hours, but many may have opted until this morning's rates to reflect that change.

With no data or significant events scheduled for today, expect to see the stock markets be the biggest influence on changes to bond prices and mortgage rates this afternoon. If the major stock indexes continue their upward move from this morning's lows, we will likely see those funds that were moved into bonds yesterday shifted back into stocks. The end result may be a small upward revision to mortgage rates this afternoon, if this morning's trend continues.

Next week looks to be fairly active with the release of a couple of important reports and another FOMC meeting scheduled. One of them is an extremely important quarterly release that gives us a key measurement of economic activity. There is data scheduled for Monday morning when the National Association of Realtors posts December's home resale figures, which is expected show a decline in sales. Look for more information and details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.