Mortgage Market Watch

Today's Advisory - 10-23-2009
October 23rd, 2009 2:07 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory again despite stock weakness during early trading. The stock markets are still unable to hold recent gains with the Dow down 90 points and again falling below the 10,000 benchmark. The Nasdaq is currently down 4 points. The bond market is down 13/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

Today's only relevant economic news came from the National Association of Realtors who reported that home resales rose to their highest level in over two years during September. This is bad news for bonds because a strengthening housing market makes a broader economic recovery much more likely. However, this data is not one of the more important reports we see each month, so its impact on today's rates has been fairly minimal.

Next week is much more active in terms of important economic reports than this week was. There are reports that are considered to be highly important scheduled for release multiple days. They include a key measure of consumer confidence, personal income and spending data and the preliminary estimate of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We also have a couple of Treasury auctions to look out for.

None of the important data is scheduled for release Monday, so I am expecting stocks to heavily influence trading and any changes to mortgage pricing. Look for details on next week's reports and events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 23rd, 2009 2:07 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-30-2009
October 30th, 2009 4:08 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning's economic data failed to show any significant surprises and the stock markets opened with losses. Stocks are starting the next leg of their recent roller coaster ride with sizable losses. The Dow has given back yesterday's rally with a loss of 250 points so far. The Nasdaq is not fairing much better with a 52 point loss. The bond market is currently up 44 basis points, and rate has already improved by .25% (lower discount points) from the time they were initally posted at 11:30 AM.

The first of today's three reports was the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). It showed an increase of 0.4% that matched forecasts. This means that employer costs for wages and benefits rose moderately during the third quarter, but this was expected. Therefore, its' impact on today's trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

September's Personal Income and Outlays report was the second, revealing no change in personal income last month and a 0.5% decline in spending. These figures pegged analysts' expectations and also have not influenced today's mortgage pricing.

The third and final report of the day was the University of Michigan's update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for October. They announced a reading of 70.6 that exceeded forecasts of a 70.0 reading. This means that consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That can be considered bad news for bonds but since this data is only moderately important, it fortunately has been unable to prevent bonds from rising this morning.

Yesterday's 7-year Note auction was met with an average demand. It can't be considered weak or strong. Some of the components that measure the success of the sales pointed towards less interest than Wednesday's auction, but not by enough to cause much concern.

Next week is extremely busy in terms of economic reports being posted. Unlike many, we will see important data posted this Monday. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index late Monday morning. It is considered to be one of the more important reports we get each month, but it will not be the most important data next week. In addition the data, that includes the monthly employment figures, we also have another FOMC meeting to watch for. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 30th, 2009 4:08 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-29-2009
October 29th, 2009 3:53 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory after today's important economic data gave us stronger than expected results. The stock markets are showing strength with the Dow up 86 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32, but we will probably see little change in this morning's mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

Today's big news was the release of the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is considered to be the benchmark reading of economic activity. It showed a larger than expected jump of 3.5%, indicating that the economy grew at a faster pace than many had thought. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates since it raises concerns that the economic recovery may be sooner than later. Generally speaking, weak economic conditions make long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. When the economy is expanding, inflation concerns make those securities less appealing and drive mortgage rates higher.

Yesterday's 5-year Note auction went fairly well. This leads to optimism that today's 7-year Note sale will also go well. If there is a strong demand in today's auction, we may see bonds improve this afternoon. But if the sale does not draw a decent interest from investors, mortgage rates could move higher this afternoon. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET today, so any reaction to them will come during afternoon trading.

There are three reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.4%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

September's Personal Income and Outlays report will also be posted early tomorrow morning. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns. Analysts are expecting to see no change in income and decline in outlays of 0.5%.

The week's last report comes at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow when the University of Michigan updates their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. Current forecasts show this index rising slightly this month's preliminary reading of 69.4. This index is moderately important because it helps us measure consumer confidence, which is believed to indicate consumers' willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be relevant.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 29th, 2009 3:53 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-28-2009
October 28th, 2009 2:12 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.

*** Important Note ***

Mortgage rates have improved over the past several days, but the trend is that rates are going up...for several reasons, not the least of which is that the Federal Reserve is ending it's mortgage bond purchase program early in 2010.  So you know that rates go up and down on a daily basis, and rates are going down now.  But we will not hit the lows of earlier this year or even two weeks ago.  So it is important to understand that if you are watching rates and waiting to refinance thinking that you missed the boat, but waiting for rates to return to the previous lows...the reality of the bond market does not align with that line of reasoning.  My sincere advice is to take advantage of days like today when rates hit a low point.  Otherwise there is a very good likelihood that you may miss the opportunity to refinance.
Today's Advisory

Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again after this morning's only economic report showed no surprises. A negative open for stocks is also helping bonds during early trading. The Dow and Nasdaq are both showing losses of 28 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - of a discount point.

The Commerce Department released September's Durable Goods Orders this morning, announcing an increase of 1.0% in new orders for big-ticket items. This matched forecasts and had little impact on this morning's trading or mortgage pricing.

September's New Home Sales report was also posted this morning, but its results did surprise many analysts. It was expected to show that sales of newly constructed homes rose last month, but actually revealed a decline in sales. It also revised August's final sales figures lower, meaning that sales were weaker than thought over the past two months. This can be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data usually does not heavily influence trading or rates.

The 5-year Notes auction is being held today while tomorrow brings us the 7-year Note sales. If the sales go well, we may see afternoon strength in bonds that lead to downward revisions to mortgage rates. But lackluster interest in them will probably cause bonds to fall and mortgage rates to move higher. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET today and tomorrow.

The most important release of the week will be released early tomorrow morning. This is the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is arguable the single most important report the bond market sees regularly. The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and therefore is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart.

Tomorrow's release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for an increase of approximately 3.2% in the GDP. If this report does show a much smaller increase, I am expecting to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates to fall. However, a larger than expected rise could lead to bond selling and a sizable increase in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Posted by Scott Shinn on October 28th, 2009 2:12 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-27-2009
October 27th, 2009 2:54 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of a much weaker than expected consumer confidence reading. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 30 points and the Nasdaq down 19 points. The bond market is currently up 44 basis points, so rates came out this morning a little better than Monday's close and we've already posted one rate improvement.

The Conference Board said that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October fell to 47.7. This was much weaker than the 53.5 that was expected and indicates that consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because it means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future, therefore, limiting economic growth.

The Commerce Department will post Durable Goods Orders for September early tomorrow morning. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. Analysts are currently calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 1.0%. If we see a larger than expected increase in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast.

Also tomorrow is the release of September's New Home Sales. This data covers the remaining 15% of home sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report tracked and is this week's least important data. It is expected to show an increase in sales, but regardless of its results I am not expecting it to have a significant impact on mortgage rates.

Tomorrow also brings us the first of the two relevant Treasury auctions. 5-year Notes will be sold tomorrow, which will help us prepare for Thursday's 7-year Note sale. If the sales go well, we may see afternoon strength in bonds that lead to downward revisions to mortgage rates. But lackluster interest in them will probably cause bonds to fall and mortgage rates to move higher. Results of the sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 27th, 2009 2:54 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-26-2009
October 26th, 2009 2:32 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Monday's bond market has opened well in negative ground following early stock gains. The stock markets are showing early strength with the Dow up 97 points and the Nasdaq up 27 points. This pushes the Dow above the important 10,000 benchmark level yet again, but its ability to hold that level has come up short during recent trading. It appears that until that level can hold, many analysts will remain skeptical of the recent stock rally. However, as stocks rise this morning, bonds are falling. The bond market is currently down 24/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over Friday's morning rates.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of seven relevant economic reports and two important Treasury auctions for the bond market to digest. Contributing to this morning's bond losses is the fact that there is $123 billion of Treasury debt being sold this week. That new supply of debt makes existing bonds and notes less attractive to investors. It is also common to see selling in bonds ahead of these auctions so market participants can prepare for the sales.

The first report of the week is one of the more important ones. October's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted late tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a small increase in confidence from last month's 53.1 reading, indicating that consumers are a little more likely to make large purchases in the near future than last month. As long as the reading doesn't exceed the forecasted 53.5, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Overall, it will likely be an active week for the markets and mortgage rates. I believe that the single most important day will probably end up being Thursday with the extremely important GDP release in the morning and the Treasury auction results during afternoon hours. However, tomorrow, Wednesday and Friday should also be active. Accordingly, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week, especially if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 26th, 2009 2:32 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-22-2009
October 22nd, 2009 1:14 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory again as traders still wait for direction on the stock markets. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 44 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, but we will likely see an improvement in mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

Neither of today's economic releases were considered to be highly important. The Labor Department gave us favorable news with an announcement that 531,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was higher than expected, indicating that the employment sector may be weakening. However, this data usually has little influence on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts because it tracks a week's worth of new claims.

Late this morning the Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, said that their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 1.0% last month. This was a larger jump than what analysts had expected, meaning that economic activity may increase over the next three to six months at a faster pace than many had thought. This is negative news for bonds and mortgage rates because rapid economic growth raises fears of inflation that makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors.

Yesterday afternoon's release of the Fed Beige Book didn't give us any significant surprises. It pointed towards a stabilizing economy in most regions and slight growth in some, which was the general consensus anyhow. This made it a non-factor on mortgage rates late yesterday.

September's Existing Home Sales will be posted late tomorrow morning. This National Association of Realtors report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. It likely will have little influence on the bond market or mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from analysts' forecasts. It is expected to show an increase in sales from August to September, meaning that the housing sector likely strengthened.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 22nd, 2009 1:14 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-21-2009
October 21st, 2009 1:39 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Wednesday's bond market has opened well in negative territory following despite no relevant economic news being released. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 48 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

There was no relevant economic data posted this morning, but this afternoon brings us the release of the Fed Beige Book. This 2:00 PM release details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during their FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it reveals stronger signs of inflation or economic growth from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher this afternoon.

The Labor Department will give us last week's unemployment numbers early tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting it to show that 517,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. A larger number would be favorable for bonds, but this data is not important enough to heavily influence mortgage rates.

The next monthly report is September's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) late tomorrow morning. This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.9% from August's reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to increase fairly rapidly. That would be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this report is considered to be only moderately important.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 21st, 2009 1:39 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-16-2009
October 16th, 2009 12:46 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a weak open in stocks. The stock markets are in selling mode during early trading with the Dow down 110 points and the Nasdaq down 28 points. Weaker than expected earnings reports from a couple of major names is the main reason for the early selling in stocks. The bond market is currently up 9/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

There were two reports released this morning, but neither can be considered highly important to the markets or mortgage rates. September's Industrial Production data was the first, revealing a 0.7% increase in industrial output last month. This was much stronger than forecasts, meaning that production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities exceeded expectations. This can be considered negative news for bonds, but fortunately the bond market has not had much of a reaction to this news.

The last report of the week was October's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment late this morning. It came in at 69.4, well below forecasts of 73.5. This indicates that consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is good news for the bond market because falling levels of consumer confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future, limiting gains in economic activity. However, this report is considered to be only moderately important to the markets and has not had a major influence on this morning's trading or mortgage rates.

Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic reports for the markets to digest. Only one of them is considered very important, meaning it has the potential of significantly affecting mortgage rates. The rest are either of moderate or low importance, which means that they may affect mortgage rates slightly. None of the week's relevant data is being posted Monday, therefore, the stock markets are likely to influence bond trading and mortgage rates. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 16th, 2009 12:46 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-13-2009
October 13th, 2009 11:51 AM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Tuesday's bond market has opened well in positive territory following last week's sell-off. The stock markets are helping bonds by showing early losses with the Dow down 38 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently up 21/32, but we likely will see little change in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness late Friday.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The bond market was closed yesterday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday, so today's trading picks up from Friday's levels. Last week closed on a significant sell-off so this morning's gains in bonds could be investors finalizing positions. Some traders feel last week's sell-off was overkill, meaning market participants feel current prices are a good buy. This has attracted funds into bonds this morning.

Tomorrow morning brings us the week's first piece of data when September's Retail Sales report is posted. This data is very important to the markets because it measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop. However, stronger than expected sales could fuel a stock rally and push mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 2.1% decline in sales. The large drop from August's sales is expected to come from a significant decline in auto transactions since the Cash for Clunkers program ended.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow is the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Wednesday afternoon. However, if they indicate that inflation is still not a threat and that a rate increase is not likely in the in the bear future, the bond market and mortgage rates should remain calm.

Overall, I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates this week, but mostly the latter part of the week. The key reports are tomorrow's Retail Sales report and Thursday's CPI data. But the active week for corporate earnings can also heavily influence trading and mortgage rates any day of the week. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if you have not locked an interest rates yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 13th, 2009 11:51 AMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-9-2009
October 9th, 2009 1:54 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Friday's bond market has opened down sharply as yesterday's afternoon selling continues into this morning. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 43 points and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market is currently down 30/32, which with yesterday's afternoon weakness will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 - .625 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

Today's only economic data was August's Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It revealed a $30.7 billion trade deficit, exceeding forecasts. However, this news is relatively inconsequential to the markets and has had little impact on today's trading or mortgage rates.

Yesterday's 30-year Bond sale did not go nearly as well as Wednesday's 10-year auction. This led to afternoon selling in bonds yesterday that created upward revisions to mortgage rates. This weakness did not come as a surprise, so hopefully our loyal followers headed the conservative approach towards mortgage rates. Unfortunately, today may not be the end of the selling or upward move in rates.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of very important economic reports and the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The bond market will be closed Monday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday, but the stock markets will be open for trading. There is no early close for the bond market today.

The week's first relevant economic report does not come until Wednesday morning. Look for details on next week's data and relevant events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 9th, 2009 1:54 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-7-2009
October 7th, 2009 1:00 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite a lack of factual economic data being posted today. The stock markets are showing minor gains after a strong two-day rally. The Dow is currently down 24 points while the Nasdaq has slipped 2 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, but I don't think we will see much of a change in this morning's mortgage rates as lenders wait for today's debt sale before making any adjustments.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, but we do have the 10-year Treasury Note auction to contend with. This sale will give us an important measure of investor interest in longer-term U.S. debt, particularly from international buyers. If there is a strong demand in the sale, we should see the broader bond market rally and mortgage rates move lower after the results are posted at 1:00 PM ET. However, a lackluster interest in the sale would likely lead to higher mortgage rates this afternoon.

The only semi-relevant economic news scheduled to be posted tomorrow are weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 540,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week. However, unless there is a wide variance between the actual number and the forecasted number of new claims, this data will likely have a minimal impact on bond trading and mortgage rates.

The 30-year Bond auction is tomorrow also. It is less important to mortgage rates than today's 10-year Note sale, but its' announced results can influence bond trading enough to revise mortgage rates slightly tomorrow afternoon. The same principals apply as today's sale. A strong demand is good news for bonds while a weak sale could lead to higher mortgage rates late tomorrow.

The only factual economic data of the week will be posted Friday morning. August's Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates. It is expected to show a $32.9 billion trade deficit.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 7th, 2009 1:00 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-6-2009
October 6th, 2009 1:26 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory with the stock markets in a sizable rally. The Dow is currently up 150 points while the Nasdaq has gained 36 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no specific report or reason for stocks rallying this morning. Improving global economic conditions can be considered a contributing factor, but it is more of a situation where the general sentiment in the stock markets is favorable. This morning's bond weakness is partly a result of the stock gains as investors shift funds from the safety of bonds to join the stock rally.

Also contributing to this morning's negative opening in bonds is tomorrow's big Treasury auction. It is common to see some weakness in bonds ahead of the major auctions as market participants prepare for the sale. If the sales go well, those pre-sale losses are usually recovered shortly after the auction is completed.

There is no relevant reports or events scheduled for today. Tomorrow does not bring us any relevant economic news but the 10-year Treasury Note auction will be held tomorrow. This sale will give us an important measure of investor interest in longer-term U.S. debt, particularly from international buyers. If there is a strong demand in the sale, we should see the broader bond market rally and mortgage rates move lower tomorrow afternoon. However, a lackluster interest in the sale would likely lead to higher mortgage rates during afternoon trading. The results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 6th, 2009 1:26 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-5-2009
October 5th, 2009 3:45 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory, following the direction of stocks. The stock markets are showing gains of 68 points and 16 points for the Dow and Nasdaq respectively. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but I don't believe we will see much of a change in this morning's mortgage rates.

This week brings us only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This means that the week will be left mostly up to the stock markets and other influences since there is a lack of factual data for bonds to trade on. In addition to the one report, we also have two relevant Treasury auctions that can also cause movement in rates if demand for them is particularly strong or weak.

There are no relevant reports or events scheduled for today or tomorrow. The first relevant event of the week is Wednesday's 10-year Treasury Note auction. This sale will give us an important measure of investor interest in longer-term U.S. debt, particularly from international buyers. If there is a strong demand in the sale, we should see the broader bond market rally and mortgage rates move lower. However, a lackluster interest in the sale would likely lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

Overall, I suspect this is going to be fairly quiet week for the bond market and mortgage rates, especially compared to last week. For the most part, I believe the week will be left to the stock markets and the Fed auctions. The most important day of the week is likely Wednesday due to the 10-year Treasury Note sale, but any day of significant stock volatility may make that particular day the most eventful.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 5th, 2009 3:45 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-2-2009
October 2nd, 2009 3:58 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Friday's bond market has opened relatively flat despite weaker than expected economic data. The stock markets initially opened well in negative territory but have since recovered a good portion of those losses. The Dow is currently down 12 points and the Nasdaq is down 5 points. The bond market is down 2/32, but we still should see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

The Labor Department gave us today's big news with the release of September's Employment report. They reported that the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 9.8% last month, as expected. However, the number of lost jobs was 263,000, exceeding forecasts of 180,000. The third important component of the report- average hourly earnings, did not rise as much as thought. Overall, this data is favorable to bonds, but we have not seen much buying this morning as it appears the recent rally may be running out of steam.

The second report came from the Commerce Department, who said that new orders at U.S. factories fell 0.8% in August. This was much lower than the 0.5% increase that was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector is weaker than many had thought. That is also good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but the employment figures were much more important to the markets than this factory report. Therefore, its impact on trading has been minimal.

Next week is pretty light in terms of economic reports, so look for the stock markets to influence trading and mortgage rates. Since the bond market has failed to rally around today's news, it may be time to take a conservative approach towards mortgage rates if still floating a rate with your lender. Look for more details on next week's events and recommendations in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 2nd, 2009 3:58 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Today's Advisory - 10-1-2009
October 1st, 2009 2:05 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.


Thursday's bond market has opened in positive following early stock losses and mixed economic news. The stocks markets are in selling mode this morning with the Dow down 153 points and the Nasdaq down 52 points. The bond market is currently up 22/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

The first of today's two important economic reports was August's Personal Income and Outlays that revealed a 0.2% increase in personal income and a 1.3% rise in spending. Both of these readings were higher than expected, indicating that consumers had more money to spend than thought and were spending it. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because it hints that consumer spending will help fuel economic growth.

It was the second report of the day that gave us favorable news for bonds. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that their manufacturing index slipped from 52.9 in August to 52.6 last month. This means that fewer surveyed trade executives felt business improved than was expected. Analysts had forecasted an increase in the index, meaning manufacturer sentiment was not as strong as thought. This is good news since it indicates a weaker than expected manufacturing sector.

The Labor Department said that 551,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, exceeding forecasts of 535,000. While this data is not considered to be highly important because it covers only a week's worth of claims, it could mean that tomorrow's major employment figures could come in weaker than expected.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report for September. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate at 9.8%, a decline in new payrolls of approximately 180,000 and a 0.2% increase in earnings. Stronger than expected reading will likely drive mortgage rates higher, but if they show weaker than forecasted figures bonds should rally, pushing mortgage rates lower.

The Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data late tomorrow morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates slightly if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but due to the importance of the Employment report I doubt this data will heavily influence the markets. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 0.5%.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Scott Shinn on October 1st, 2009 2:05 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog
Recent Posts:
Archive:
My Favorite Blogs:
Sites That Link to This Blog:

Carolina's Lending Source, Inc. 2500 Regency Parkway Cary, NC 27518
Phone: Fax:

Tell a Friend | Home | Apply On-Line | Steps in the Loan Process | When to get Qualified | Today's Rates | Customer Login | Mortgage Market Watch

Copyright © 2010 Carolina's Lending Source, Inc.
Portions Copyright © 2010 a la mode, inc.
Another XSite by a la mode, inc. | Admin Login| Terms of Use| Site Map