Mortgage Market Watch

November 4th, 2009 1:35 PM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.

Wednesday's bond market opened in negative territory but has now climbed back to +3 as investors prepare for today's FOMC news. Stocks are also positive accross the board. The Dow is currently up 110 points while the Nasdaq has gained 12 points. Rates today are the same as yesterday's close with discount points .125% lower.

Reiteration: Mortgage interest rates are trending upward. If you are floating, waiting to refinance, be cautious. Rates change daily and there are good and not so good days.  But the lows will not be as low as several weeks ago and the highs will go higher. If you are waiting for rates to return to the historic lows, there is little in the way of economic news to support that belief. My advice would be to take advantage of these rates while they are still available.

There is no important economic data being released today. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said their services index fell last month, meaning that sentiment in the service sector was weaker than thought. This can be considered good news for the bond market, but this index is far less important than the ISM manufacturing index posted Monday. Therefore, its impact on this morning's trading and mortgage pricing has been minimal.

This afternoon brings us the adjournment of the two-day FOMC meeting. There is almost no possibility that the Fed raised key short-term interest rates during this monetary policy meeting. But market participants will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of when the Fed may make a move. The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET, so look for any reaction to the statement to come during afternoon hours. Generally speaking, any hint of a rate increase coming relatively soon would be negative news for bonds and lead to higher mortgage rates.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the statement release.

Tomorrow's data is relatively important to the bond market. This report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. It is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter equivalent to last quarter's final reading of 6.6%. Analysts have forecasted a 6.4% rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity allows the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Posted by Scott Shinn on November 4th, 2009 1:35 PMPost a Comment (0)

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