Mortgage Market Watch

September 25th, 2009 11:35 AM
Follow Me and when mortgage rates are headed up or down, I'll post a tweet so you can lock or float ahead of the change.

Friday's 4.5% Fannie Mae bond is trading virtually flat and as a result mortgage interest rates are unchanged from yesterday's close.

Remember, stocks and bonds compete for investment capital, so as stocks improve, bond prices typically fall.  There is an inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, so as the bond price increase, the yield decreases and rates improve.

The markets have a had two important pieces of information to digest this morning:

1. Durable goods orders fell in August by 2.4%, the largest drop since January.  http://tinyurl.com/y8el3mr  Economists surveyed had expected a .07% gain and the news has had a dampening affect on stocks.  The DOW is now -17 and the S&P -2.

2. Consumer sentiment as gauged by the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey rose to a revised 73.5 up from 65.7 in August. http://tinyurl.com/ybokjz3

So the offsetting reports have put a damper on stocks and have bonds moving sideways.

What does this mean for mortgage rates?

Take a quick look at the bond page.  It's very important to interpret this information correctly and not hope for the unrealistic.  The bond price is in a great spot, trading 24 basis points above the 200 day moving average.  But note that the bond has moved up and touched resistence at 101.09 and retreated and will likely, given the direction of stocks, remain between the 200 day moving average and resistance.  The 200 day moving average, as you can see from the bond chart is now on a sideways path and the bond price will not trade for long in a range well above that average.

That means that now, just like yesterday, is the time to lock and take advantage of this improvement in bond prices and mortgage interest rates.

If I were closing in the next 60 days I would LOCK.


Posted by Scott Shinn on September 25th, 2009 11:35 AMPost a Comment (0)

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